On the Obama “landslide”
If, like me, you visit electoral-vote.com, or fivethirtyeight.com fairly frequently, you might start tending to think that this election is going to be a landslide. After all, electoral-vote.com currently has Obama estimated to win 364-157 electoral votes, and fivethirtyeight.com estimates an Obama win of 348-183 electoral votes and a probability of an Obama win at 96.2%.
Fivethirtyeight.com shows Obama with just a 52-48% advantage in the popular vote.
Look at 1984, Reagan won with 58 vs. Mondale’s 40% of the popular vote, and took all but one state. In 1980, Reagon won with 50% of the popular vote vs. Carter’s 41%. In 72, Nixon beat McGovern, taking all states but Mass. with 60% of the popular vote vs. 37% for McGovern.
Scrolling through that site reveals several other much more impressive landslides than the one we seem to have here with Obama.
I look at that popular vote split, 52% for Obama, and 48% for McCain, and I have to think, “what the hell is wrong with McCain supporters? Why are there that many of them? Why isn’t this much more of a landslide?”
But, when I speak to some guys at work who are McCain supporters, they say things like, “I can’t understand how any intelligent person would conclude that Obama is the better candidate,” but are unable to explain in ways that make any sense to me why they think this way.
It is very strange.