On the Obama “landslide”

If, like me, you visit electoral-vote.com, or fivethirtyeight.com fairly frequently, you might start tending to think that this election is going to be a landslide. After all, electoral-vote.com currently has Obama estimated to win 364-157 electoral votes, and fivethirtyeight.com estimates an Obama win of 348-183 electoral votes and a probability of an Obama win at 96.2%.

However, a look at the history of elections (via metafilter) shows that this “landslide” doesn’t compare to previous landslides.

Fivethirtyeight.com shows Obama with just a 52-48% advantage in the popular vote.

Look at 1984, Reagan won with 58 vs. Mondale’s 40% of the popular vote, and took all but one state. In 1980, Reagon won with 50% of the popular vote vs. Carter’s 41%. In 72, Nixon beat McGovern, taking all states but Mass. with 60% of the popular vote vs. 37% for McGovern.

Scrolling through that site reveals several other much more impressive landslides than the one we seem to have here with Obama.

I look at that popular vote split, 52% for Obama, and 48% for McCain, and I have to think, “what the hell is wrong with McCain supporters? Why are there that many of them? Why isn’t this much more of a landslide?”

But, when I speak to some guys at work who are McCain supporters, they say things like, “I can’t understand how any intelligent person would conclude that Obama is the better candidate,” but are unable to explain in ways that make any sense to me why they think this way.

It is very strange.

~ by scaryreasoner on October 29, 2008.

2 Responses to “On the Obama “landslide””

  1. Lets see . We dont want to answer the hard questions. We want you to follows us like SHEEP . We dont want you to see the tape . We want you to give us your HARD earned money so we can give it out to those who have not earned it. We want to raise taxes when the dollar is down. We want you to follow US LIKE SHEEP. America dont go BA BA we are not sheep . If he is so truthful then ANSWER THE HARD QUESTIONS. SHOW US THE TAPE. Bums voting with no proof of address Acorn and its fraudulent registrations. Acorn trained by Obama. Can we say flim flam man. Snake oil salesman .The DNC ha shad controll of congress for 2 years they made this mess. Dont give away this great NATION. If we do then this great Nation will pay .

  2. And the above is what I meant when I said McCain supporters “are unable to explain in ways that make any sense to me…”

    Summing up the reasons given:

    A profound, probably willful misunderstanding of Obama’s tax plan. As George Will, noted conservative commentator put it, 95% of everything the government does iw wealth redistribution. The charge of socialism is ridiculous given that Bush has just nationlized the banks. And you think this financial crisis is due to the Democrats being in office in the last two years? You have zero understanding of thsi financial crisis if that’s what you think. The buildupt has been going on for decades, starting with the securitization of loans, and moving on with the repeal of Glass-Steagall which allowed investment banks to mingle with commercial banks, which accelerated the securitization of loane, and topping off with the unanimously passed Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, which enabled credit default swaps to be used speculatively and forbid states from enforcing anti-gaming laws passed in the wake of the Panic of 1907.

    A profound, probably willful misunderstanding of the ACORN scandal. If ACORN is trying to steal the election, it is the dumbest plan ever, as 1) registering Mickey Mouse to vote will not mean that Mickey Mouse votes. 2) ACORN is required by law to turn in all voter registration forms filled out, fraudelent or not. 3) it was ACORN itself which flagged the registration forms as questionable. 4) Obama is so far ahead, he doesn’t need to cheat.

    The “arguments” made by the McCain supporters are always like this — insane, and profoundly, willfully ignorant.

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